Right now, the degree of uncertainty in the world is immense, which is why thinking about what life will be like after COVID-19 is daunting. Will we revert to business-as-usual or will humanity have a changed worldview? Will the outbreak of an invisible virus redefine globalisation, causing nation-states to seal their borders, or will we better understand that we share a single planet and need each other to survive?

No one, of course, can answer these questions with absolute certainty. However, one way to gain a sense of what might lie ahead is to look at previous crises. Other dark times in history have united people against a grave challenge and the hope is that this will happen again.

Throughout history, nothing has killed more humans – including wars – than infectious diseases. Plagues and epidemics have ravaged humanity since the dawn of civilisation. Each global disease outbreak has taught us how to manage its spread and provided vital lessons for containing future outbreaks. Our understanding of the need for social distancing comes from the bubonic plague. King Henry VI of England implemented one of the world’s first anti-contagion measures. He banned his subjects from kissing on the cheeks when greeting someone. To this day, Brits favour a firm handshake over a peck.

Throughout history, nothing has killed more humans – including wars – than infectious diseases. Plagues and epidemics have ravaged humanity since the dawn of civilisation. Each global disease outbreak has taught us how to manage its spread and provided vital lessons for containing future outbreaks. Our understanding of the need for social distancing comes from the bubonic plague. King Henry VI of England implemented one of the world’s first anti-contagion measures. He banned his subjects from kissing on the cheeks when greeting someone. To this day, Brits favour a firm handshake over a peck.

During this current pandemic, we have gone one step further: handshakes are out and elbow bumps are in. Many argue that handshakes will never return. My hope is that this everyday gesture – which establishes a positive connection between two people – will eventually become commonplace again.

History shows that major upheavals also leave their mark on geopolitics. This happened in the aftermath of World War II when the liberal world order was created. Liberalism is an international worldview that opposes isolation and protectionism.

The liberal vision looks for collective solutions to global problems by working cooperatively with the help of international institutions (such as the WHO) to make the world a better place. Liberalism as a political ideology is linked to globalisation whereas nationalism is driven by anti-globalist sentiments.

The liberal worldview is not embraced by President Trump and other right-wing politicians. During his election campaign, Trump declared that ‘Americanism, not globalism, will be our credo’. Until a few months ago, it seemed that the resurgence of this nationalist political ideology would define the remainder of the 21st century.

However, the pandemic has forced governments around the world into solidarity and cooperation. It has also demonstrated that a world without deep cross-border engagement is not tenable. The international system will certainly be challenged but will survive, whereas America’s go-it-alone policy will – in my view – be found wanting.

While World War II devastated Europe and Asia, the US emerged in strong economic and military shape – making it the undisputed world leader. Coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is the US which is now being challenged; China wants to become the new dominant world leader and its actions speak clearly to that aim.

China will accelerate its manoeuvring for international leadership – both politically and economically – while the US continues to falter (unless Joe Biden wins the November election). COVID-19 has intensified the rivalry between the world’s two superpowers with both nations engaging in mutual recrimination in lieu of collaboration.

In times of great uncertainty, the strong dominate the weak and China has used the pandemic to cast itself as the global saviour. China has provided many nations, including us, with hundreds of thousands of test kits, respirators and face masks. Ironically, several countries reported faults with the masks and they were returned.

For over two decades, China has been known as ‘the world’s factory’ because it dominates many manufacturing industries including the production of face masks. If nations including Australia do not want to be beholden to China post COVID-19, they must break China’s stranglehold on global supply chains.

Depending on one country to provide vital products for industries such as the pharmaceutical sector is a recipe for disaster. About 80 per cent of pharmaceuticals sold in the US are produced in China. This number, according to experts, hides an even greater problem: China is the world’s largest and sometimes only global supplier for the active ingredient of some vital medications.

The label ‘Made in China’ will diminish in the coming years. National governments will intervene to force strategic industries to diversify their supply chains to reduce their dependence on any single country. By its very nature, a global economy will always be interconnected and interdependent, but this does not mean that one powerful nation should be able to hold others to ransom – no matter how attractive its price proposition appears.

Another thing we will encounter when the dust settles on the pandemic is a massive increase in sovereign debt. The world is awash with stimulus packages as nation-states have raced to help people and businesses survive the economic contagion. Collectively, the various fiscal and monetary interventions are estimated to exceed a staggering US$11 trillion, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

The pandemic is the biggest hit to the global economy since the Great Depression, which is why the world has opened its wallet. But it is citizens who will be forced to pay the bill. The burden of reducing higher net public debt will fall on taxpayers, just as wartime spending did. In many nations, this payback will be via a combination of higher taxes and less government spending.

A final change we will encounter is the same as that experienced post September 11: citizens around the world will be required to sacrifice liberties for safety. Just as travellers are now searched before boarding a plane, the price of continued vigilance against new viruses will be some loss of privacy and personal freedoms.

The rise of mass surveillance after 9/11 offers a cautionary tale about the use of technology to keep tabs on people’s movements. During this current crisis, location tracking apps on mobile phones have been used by China, Singapore, Israel, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Thailand. These nations have kept a very close eye on people who have been exposed to the virus.

In the fight against COVID-19, civil liberties have been treated as a casualty of war. However, the right to privacy is enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Civil Liberties Australia recently warned that ‘a health emergency is no excuse for abusing secret powers’ and that Australia must not use a crisis ‘to permanently implant more draconian security measures including excess surveillance’.

Please allow me to conclude by underscoring that several possible scenarios have been developed by scholars, analysts, columnists and other commentators to describe what society might look like on the other side of COVID-19. Many are predicting that the pandemic fallout will significantly impact all domains of life and will drive huge shifts in how we live and how governments govern.

I accept that some things will change but reject the assertion of many commentators that the world will be unrecognisable. I think the world following the pandemic is unlikely to be radically different from the one that preceded it, but hopefully it will be more resilient.

Yes, the world feels awfully strange right now, but life on Earth as we know it will return. There will not be an upheaval of everything that we once took for granted; however, lifestyle patterns will experience some changes. My hope is that we will all be part of a more humane society and that we have all learned at least one lesson:

You do not know how much you miss normal life until it is gone!

All food for thought!

John Thomas

 

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